Tuesday 15 September 2009

Speculation on Hostile Bid for Gulfsands

Today, the Daily Mail has run an article speculating that Sinochem may launch an hostile bid for Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX), Emerald Energy's 50:50 partner in Block 26 in Syria.

Contrary to what the article says, Gulfsand shas 120.22m shares in issue and 129.05m shares after options are exercised. This fully diluted number of shares in issue would place a value of ~£419m on Gulfsands @ 325p/share.

One might assume GPX's Gulf of Mexico assets are worth very little and with gas prices trading near multi-year lows, the assets being cash consuming this year, and seemingly accident prone from hurricanes that does not look unreasonable.

Of course, the full bid value for Emerald Energy is 750p/share or £532m. Then if the rumoured GPX deal werer to go ahead, it would effectively put a value of ~£113m on EEN's Colombian assets (or 161p/share, compared to Jeffs RENAV of 557p/share for Colombia).

It is certainly looking like the Emerald bid was agreed at too low a price.

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